Living standards in Greater Manchester

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1. We do things differently here Living standards in Greater Manchester Stephen Clarke November 2016 @stephenlclarke/@resfoundation 2. Britain’s major cities…
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  • 1. We do things differently here Living standards in Greater Manchester Stephen Clarke November 2016 @stephenlclarke/@resfoundation
  • 2. Britain’s major cities underperform 2 Notes: All cities shown have populations between 1 and 2 million Source: OECD, Metropolitan database
  • 3. 3 DON’T LOOK BACK IN ANGER Strong economic performance has been followed by disappointment
  • 4. Strong pre-crisis economic growth has unfortunately been followed by poor performance since 4 Source: RF analysis of ONS, Regional Gross Value Added Greater Manchester’s economy performed strongly before the crisis, but remains around 3.5 percentage points below its pre-crisis peak
  • 5. Similarly good employment performance pre- crisis, but the region has fallen behind 5 Source: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Market Survey
  • 6. And earnings were keeping pace with UK before crisis, growing divergence afterwards 6 Source: RF analysis of ONS, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
  • 7. As a result living standards are broadly in line with other cities, but below average overall 7 Source: RF analysis of ONS, Small area income estimates 2011/12 Weekly household incomes are £76 or 15% lower in Greater Manchester than in the rest of Great Britain
  • 8. 8 ISOLATION Falling inequality between people Rising inequality between places
  • 9. Between 1997 and 2016 pay growth was broadly progressive 9 Source: RF analysis of ONS, ASHE … but mainly because it fell faster for those at the top since the crisis 1997 - 2016 1997 - 2009 2009 - 2016 -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 10pct 20pct 30pct 40pct 50pct 60pct 70pct 80pct 90pct Average annual change in gross hourly pay (RPIJ-adjusted) (Poorest) (Richest) Pay rose by 21% for the lowest- paid between 1997 and 2007
  • 10. Employment rose most for those most likely to be out of work… 10 Sources: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey The employment rate for ethnic minorities rose from 44% to 54% And from 53% to 61% for people with low level qualifications
  • 11. … most of the improvement came before the crisis 11 Sources: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey
  • 12. Geography matters a lot for understanding how much different groups have benefitted 12 Sources: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey Notes: Each diamond represents a local authority in Greater Manchester Employment rate:
  • 13. Geography matters a lot for understanding how much different groups have benefitted 13 Sources: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey Notes: Each diamond represents a local authority in Greater Manchester Employment rate: Low qualified 43% in Manchester 69% in Stockport
  • 14. Geography matters a lot for understanding how much different groups have benefitted 14 Sources: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey Notes: Each diamond represents a local authority in Greater Manchester Employment rate: Low qualified 43% in Manchester 69% in Stockport Younger people 53% in Rochdale 72% in Stockport
  • 15. Despite inequalities between people falling, they were rising in one respect - housing 15 Source: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey Greater Manchester has seen the biggest fall in homeownership of any city region - down 15 percentage points since 2003 This has most affected younger people
  • 16. Some areas saw strong enough growth in the 200os to outweigh hit from crisis 16 Source: RF analysis of ONS, Small area income estimates 2004/05 & 2011/12 Between 2004/05 and 2011/12 Overall incomes fell by 3% across Greater Manchester though income growth ranged from 5% to 35% in parts of the regional centre.
  • 17. Strong population growth has taken place in fast growing areas 17 Source: Transport for Greater Manchester There was significant population growth in the regional centre between 2001 – 2011…
  • 18. Strong population growth has taken place in fast growing areas 18 Source: Transport for Greater Manchester There was significant population growth in the regional centre between 2001 – 2011… And in the regional centre this corresponded broadly with income growth
  • 19. 19 PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE LET ME GET WHAT I WANT Productivity, geographic inequality and housing
  • 20. Three key challenges Productivity: • Output per hour worked in GM is £26.60 compared to £30 in the rest of the country. • 1 in 5 workers will be paid the minimum wage in 2020. • Raising productivity in high-employment low paying sectors is vital, as is providing opportunities for high-skilled workers. 20
  • 21. Three key challenges Geographic inequality: • Household incomes in the richest neighbourhoods in GM are 1.8 times those in the poorest, and this is up from 1.6 in 2007. • GM is the most unequal region in terms of employment rates. • Devolution of transport, employment and skills powers provide opportunities to help people as well as places. 21
  • 22. Three key challenges Housing: • Housing costs rose 26% in GM between 2004 and 2012 while incomes fell by 5%. • Homeownership has fallen by 15 percentage points since 2003. • The Greater Manchester Spatial Framework provides an opportunity to set clear goals around housebuilding. 22
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