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1. Resolution Foundation Robotics Conference Evolution or revolution? Developments in robotics and the changing world of work @resfoundation / #RFrobotics 1 2. Session 1:…
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  • 1. Resolution Foundation Robotics Conference Evolution or revolution? Developments in robotics and the changing world of work @resfoundation / #RFrobotics 1
  • 2. Session 1: Facing the future - new frontiers in robotics DoctorTakanori Shibata, AIST Japan ProfessorAlanWinfield, UWE Professor Kerstin Dautenhahn, University of Hertfordshire Ankur Modi, StatusToday Chair: DavidWilletts, Resolution Foundation 2
  • 3. The Robots and Autonomous Systems of the Bristol Robotics Laboratory Facing the future: new frontiers in robotics Resolution Foundation Robotics Conference Science Museum, London 4 July 2016 Alan FT Winfield Bristol Robotics Laboratory Science Communication Unit
  • 4. Real World Robots The First WaveThe First Wave The Second Wave
  • 5. Robots and humans working together The BERT2 robot is able to comprehend voice commands as well as simple hand gestures http://www.chrisfp7.eu/ The Anchor Robotics Personalised Assisted Living Studio
  • 6. 6 Bio inspired robotics: artificial whiskers www.whiskerbot.org The rat “sees” the world with its whiskers. Scratchbot has artificial whiskers just like a rat. An artificial whisker module
  • 7. Tactile sensing – Tactip artificial finger tip ` Engineered Implementation http://www.brl.ac.uk/researchthemes/medicalrobotics/tactip.aspx Remote tele-haptics: allows us to transmit the sense of touch
  • 8. Tactile sensing – Tactip artificial finger tip ` Engineered Implementation http://www.brl.ac.uk/researchthemes/medicalrobotics/tactip.aspx Remote tele-haptics: allows us to transmit the sense of touch
  • 9. Medical and surgical robotics http://brl.ac.uk/research/researchthemes/medicalrobotics.aspx The wearable hand: an exo-skeleton for post- stroke therapy Image-based robotic system for enhanced minimally invasive intra- articular fracture surgeries, ICRA 2016
  • 10. Medical and surgical robotics Dr Sabine Hauert, Wired magazine 2015 This swarm of 1000 ‘kilobots’ is used to model nano-particles for cancer treatment http://sabinehauert.com/
  • 11. Urine-tricity: Electricity from waste water ANODE CATHODE http://www.brl.ac.uk/researchthemes/bioenergyselfsustainable/urine-tricity.aspx Pee power at Glastonbury June 2016 Microbial Fuel Cell
  • 12. Driverless cars VENTURER aims to establish a test facility for connected and autonomous vehicles http://www.venturer-cars.com/ FLOURISH is developing user-centric autonomous vehicle technology and connected transport systems http://www.designability.org.uk/research project/flourish/
  • 13. The AI: Verification and Validation Trustworthy Robotic Assistants www.robosafe.org Verifiable Autonomy http://wordpress.csc.liv.ac.uk/va/ http://cgi.csc.liv.ac.uk/~michael/VaVAS/
  • 14. The Innovation Pipeline Dawn RoboticsOmnidynamics http://brl.ac.uk/businessengagement/technologyincubation1.aspx
  • 15. Acknowledgements • All of my Colleagues in the BRL, but especially • Prof Chris Melhuish • Prof Tony Pipe • Prof Ioannis Ieropoulos • Prof John Greenman • Prof Sanja Dogramadzi • Prof Praminda Caleb-Solly • Dr Kerstin Eder • Dr Sabine Hauert • Dr Martin Pearson • Dr Dieter Vanderelst • Ian Horsfield www.brl.ac.uk
  • 16. Neurological Therapeutic Medical Robot, PARO, for Non-pharmacological Therapy Takanori Shibata National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) Tokyo Institute of Technology The Age Lab., Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • 17. Contents z Animal Therapy z Seal Robot, PARO z Robot Therapy around the World z Discussion
  • 18. Animal Assisted Therapy/Activity z Psychological Merits y Cheer y Motivation z Physiological Merits y Stress Reduction y Rehabilitation z Social Merits y Encourage Communication
  • 19. Problems of Owning Animals z Allergies z Bites z Infection z House regulation Difficult to introduce!
  • 20. Therapeutic Seal Robot: PARO
  • 21. Model: Baby of Harp Seal
  • 22. Purposes of Robots Industrial Robot Service Robot Physical Service Psychological/Emotional Service
  • 23. Objectivity and Subjectivity Objective Measures Cheap Fast Accurate Subjective Measures Interesting Beautiful Comfortable Automated Machine Aesthetic Object Home Appliance Entertainment Medical Welfare Industrial Robots Working with Humans Mental Commitment Robot
  • 24. Seal Robot, PARO, for Therapy 9th Generation 10 CPUs 32bit RISC, etc Posture Sensor neck(2), each front fin(1), rear fins(1), each eyelid(1) Actuator×7 Light Sensors ×2 Vision Microphone×3 Audition Weight: 2.5 kg ・Ubiquitous Surface Tactile Sensor ×12 ・Artificial Fur (Anti-biotic) Touch ・Whisker Tactile Sensor Size: L:550 x W:290 x H:180 mm Voice Recognition Learning Functions: •New Name •Change Behavior
  • 25. PARO’s Inside (X-ray in NY, 2006)
  • 26. Safety and Dependability CE, RoHS, and other regulations z Anti-bacterial, Hair-Loss Prevention, and Soil Resistant Finish in Artificial Fur z Electromagnetic Shield z Coping with Strong Force by Humans z Easy Usage and Maintenance y One Switch and Pacifier Type Battery Charger z Tough Structure z Drop Test z Stroking Test (100,000 times) z Anti-Electrostatic Voltage Test (20,000 Volt)
  • 27. Technical Points Ubiquitous Surface Tactile Sensor Automatic Chip Mounter Six Layered Print Circuit
  • 28. PARO Factory
  • 29. Aesthetic Points Handmade for Quality Eyelashes Trimming
  • 30. PARO on the World Map (in more than 30 countries) Place where Paro has been used
  • 31. 4500 PAROs in Practical Use z 2500 PAROs in Japan since 2005 y 50% are individuals, and 40% are institutions z About 300 PAROs in Denmark since 2009 y 80% municipalities adopted PAROs z NL, FR, DE, CH, UK & other EU countries y 100% are institutions y Seminar and Certification y Health Insurance of Germany z In the US, since Dec. 2009 y Medical Device by FDA
  • 32. Science Museum, London, UK Jan. – Mar. 2002 (video)
  • 33. Guinness World Records (Feb. 2002) PARO: The Most Therapeutic Robot
  • 34. Observed Effects for Elderly with Dementia z Improve Depression, Anxiety, Pain, Sleep, Loneliness, QOL, etc. z Reduce Stress z Improve Communication and Sociability z Reduce Aggression, Wandering, etc. z Reduce Burden of Care z Reduce Risk of Falling z Reduce Psychotropic Medications (PRNs)
  • 35. Alzheimer Patient with Anxiety (Italy, since Feb. 2005)
  • 36. National Health Service, the UK Sheffield, the UK
  • 37. NHS meeting on PARO in Brighton, UK on March 4th, 2016
  • 38. SystemSURE Plus protocol (2013) for swab testing irregular surfaces Area of PARO 10 x 10 cm fur tested Initial score (>30 = fail) RLU After 1 min clean RLU After 2 min clean RLU Head fur 26 Right Flipper 57 28 0 Left Flipper 60 56 0 Bottom (where on/off switch is) 30 Top Left Back area 29 Top right back area 162 59 16 Stomach (underneath) 79 Head 39 Clinell wipes (green)
  • 39. VA Reno, US (March, 2014) Dementia and PTSD
  • 40. Healthy Ageing with PARO for Active Senior
  • 41. 20 Women with Ovarian Cancer (49-71: ave. 67) Chemotherapy for 3 – 5 hours Interaction with PARO reduce ・Pain (P = .04), Fatigue (P = .034), Anxiety (P = .036) ・Improve 9 factors of Quality of Life on Health (P = .03) UC Irvine and Long Beach Memorial Hospital, CA, USA (Society of Gynecologic Oncologists (SGO) 44th Annual Meeting on Women's Cancer, 351, 2013) Cancer Patients Chemotherapy with PARO
  • 42. Boston Higashi School for Children with Autism (Feb. 26, 2009)
  • 43. Robot Therapy at Karolinska Hospital in Stockholm, Sweden (Oct. 2003 - ) Astrid Lindgrens Pediatric Hospital LIVA
  • 44. The End parorobots.com
  • 45. Kerstin Dautenhahn Adaptive Systems Research Group University of Hertfordshire Robot-Assisted Play for Children with Autism ©University of Hertfordshire
  • 46. Bridging the gap Human unpredictability complexity Machine predictability simplicity Behaviour Understanding a system understanding behaviour understanding minds Systemising Empathising We see a lot of potential of children with autism (e.g. for joint attention) that often does not appear in typical comparisons with neurotypical children
  • 47. Levels of potential benefits • Enjoyment (benefits for child) • Engagement in social interaction with other people (benefits for child/parent/other people) • Learning and generalising social skills/ Therapeutic aspects (life skills, independent living) – long-term studies – Clinical aspects
  • 48. Focus • Robot-assisted play • Tool in the hands of therapists/teachers – Not a replacement – Not an extra burden • Robot as a social mediator – Mediating between the child and other people • Therapy-oriented (not autism research)
  • 49. Introduce KASPAR: Design Rationale • Realistic but simplified human-like features • Child-sized • Robotic in nature • Different modes of operation, key-pad, autonomous, hybrid
  • 50. Body Language: (Dynamic) Expressions “sad” “thinking” “happy” “goodbye”
  • 51. Kaspar design • It looks like a toy – …since children like to interact with toys – Children’s clothing – Child-sized, child-like but robotic appearance – Games that are fun • But it is a complex mechatronic system – composed of over 800 parts – rather complicated software behind controlling all 22 motors, 19 pressure sensors, 2 video cameras (in the eyes), and various microcomputer controllers.
  • 52. Key: User-centred design and research • Kaspar’s design was inspired by autism research • Several iterations of redesign • Interactive games were programmed to be fun for the children, and to have therapeutic and educational goals • Interdisciplinary team of researchers: computer science, engineering, psychology, therapy • Innovations not only in hardware and software design, but also in the methodology
  • 53. Some results from studies with KASPAR • Teaching imitation and turn-taking skills skills • Cause and effect games and emotional expressions (“happy”, “sad”) • Appropriate tactile social interaction • “if you are happy and you know it…” (naming body parts, singing in a group) • Teaching child-child collaborative skills
  • 54. Research with KASPAR • Case study evaluations with 100 children in long-term interactions in schools – Quantitative data based on analysis of children’s behaviour • Redesign of KASPAR • Field study has started in March 2015, using KASPAR in homes of families • Use of KASPAR by teachers in schools for several years, more schools will use KASPAR • Teachers at Tracks in Stevenage have been using KASPAR with their pre-school children with autism for > 2 years
  • 55. Developed a tool… • for teachers/parents/siblings to assist interaction and communication with a child with autism • for robot-assisted therapy according to defined developmental and therapeutic needs of individual children
  • 56. Thank You
  • 57. Resolution Foundation Robotics Conference Evolution or revolution? Developments in robotics and the changing world of work @resfoundation / #RFrobotics 58
  • 58. Session 2: Robot wars - what do robots mean for Britain’s labour market? Professor MichaelOsborne, University of Oxford Orna Ni-Chionna, Royal Mail Sarah O’Connor, FinancialTimes ProfessorAlan Manning, LSE Chair:Torsten Bell, Resolution Foundation 59
  • 59. Robot wars: what do robots mean for Britain's labour market? Resolution Foundation Robotics Conference Torsten Bell July 2016 60
  • 60. Employment is at record highs… 61
  • 61. …but robot angst is rife 62
  • 62. Risks of automation have been quantified 63
  • 63. ‘Routineness’ has been a good predictor of past job losses 64
  • 64. And overall employment masks big changes, driven in part by automation 65
  • 65. Routine jobs were also typically middle-paying 66
  • 66. But has there been a ‘hollowing out’ of the pay distribution? 67
  • 67. But has there been a ‘hollowing out’ of the pay distribution? No 68
  • 68. The ‘hollowing out’ of jobs in the middle… …has been accompanied by a ‘filling in’ with new jobs 69
  • 69. The case for more robots: 1) terrible productivity growth 70
  • 70. The case for more robots: 2) Brexit might add to the need in some sectors 71
  • 71. Robot angst has been rife for a long time 72
  • 72. Resolution Foundation Robotics Conference Evolution or revolution? Developments in robotics and the changing world of work @resfoundation / #RFrobotics 73
  • 73. Robots and the Labour Market Alan Manning Centre for Economic Performance London School of Economics
  • 74. Economics is almost entirely absent from the discussion – I will try to sketch why that might matter • Output is produced by labour, machines, and technology, t (which affects the form of machines) • New technology (robots) might mean: 1. more output with same amount of labour and capital (few would disagree with this) 2. labour becomes less important in production (a lot have argued it does) • Wages can fall in the short-run if (2) is true – (1) is irrelevant • But wages rise in the long-run if (1) is true - (2) is irrelevant
  • 75. Returns to Labour and Capital • Labour and Capital Earn their ‘Marginal Product’ i.e. their contribution to output • With fixed capital we get result that wages fall if (2) is satisfied – (1) is irrelevant • But capital is not fixed! • And things very different when it is variable
  • 76. Variable Capital • Cost of capital is interest rate + depreciation rate, normally think of this as constant • Employ capital until marginal product equals cost of capital • Now we expect that wages rise if (1) is satisfied – (2) is irrelevant • i.e. long-run effect of new technology is always to raise average wages
  • 77. Why is this? • As we use more robots, they themselves become cheaper so we use lots of them – this acts to raise the productivity of workers which is what wages ultimately depend on • What if there are lots of different goods/services: • using robots are cheaper, people have more money to spend on other things creating jobs there – probably not new jobs, just more old jobs • What if there are lots of different types of workers • Some types may lose • But average worker gains • And policy can make sure all benefit
  • 78. Conclusion • Please don’t write about the impact of robots on the labour market using a superficial analysis • That’s why all previous warnings that new technology were going to cause the ‘end of work’ were wrong • There are serious issues here but I am not sure current debates are getting to them
  • 79. Some very simple economics (using simple algebra) • Output is produced by labour, L, capital, K, and technology, t according to a production function F(L,K,t) • Assume doubling L and K doubles output • Higher t means more output so we have • But suppose new technology also displaces labour so we have that: 0 F t    2 0 F L t    
  • 80. Returns to Labour and Capital • Labour and Capital Earn their ‘Marginal Product’ i.e.: • With fixed capital we get result that wage falls with robots • But capital is not fixed! • And things very different when it is variable  , ,F L K t W L     2 , ,F L K tW t L t     
  • 81. Variable Capital • Cost of capital is interest rate + depreciation rate, r+δ, normally think of this as constant • Employ capital until point where • Total income to labour is: • And by envelope theorem: • i.e. long-run effect of new technology is always to raise wages  , ,F L K t r K         , ,WL F L K t r K    , , 0 F L K tW L t t     
  • 82. This is very simple – what if… • Many types of goods – Same result • Many types of labour – Some types may lose – But average worker gains – And policy can make sure all benefit
  • 83. Resolution Foundation Robotics Conference Evolution or revolution? Developments in robotics and the changing world of work @resfoundation / #RFrobotics 84
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