What's the damage: Labour market prospects for Britain and America

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1. Labour market prospects for Britain and America What does the recovery have in store for wages and employment? Stephen Machin 14 November 2013 2. Two Observations 1).…
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  • 1. Labour market prospects for Britain and America What does the recovery have in store for wages and employment? Stephen Machin 14 November 2013
  • 2. Two Observations 1). Falling real wages over last ten years, and weak real wage performance relative to before. 2). Strengthening relationship between real wages and unemployment, despite unemployment being lower and not rising as much as usual downturns.
  • 3. Observation 1 60 40 20 0 Percent Real Wage Growth 80 Growth in Real Weekly Earnings NES/ASHE (RPI) 1979 1989 1999 2012 Year 10th Percentile 90th Percentile 50th Percentile
  • 4. Unemployment Rates 8 6 4 Percent 10 12 ILO Unemployment Rates 1979 1989 1999 Quarter 2012
  • 5. Observation 2 6.1 2002 2001 6.05 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1992 6 1991 1990 1995 1993 1994 5.95 1989 5.9 1988 1987 1986 5.85 Median Log(Real Wage) 6.15 Real Wages and Unemployment, 1986 to 2002 -3.2 -3 -2.8 -2.6 Log(Unemployment Rate) -2.4 -2.2 Log(W) = -0.062 Log(U) + Time Trend 6.05 6.1 2006 2 20032008 2007 20050042009 2010 6 2011 5.9 5.95 2012 5.85 Median Log(Real Wage) 6.15 Real Wages and Unemployment, 2003 to 2012 -3.2 -3 -2.8 -2.6 Log(Unemployment Rate) -2.4 Log(W) = -0.184 Log(U) + Time Trend -2.2
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